August 21st, 2008 Surf Forecast

August 21st, 2008 Surf Forecast - 845AM EDT

Written by Administrator

Waves this morning at the Washout (845AM EDT), Mumbled-Jumbled CHEST-HEAD high ENE windswell/SE groundswell with larger random peaks and CHOPPY/BLOWNOUT conditions. Tide is incoming.

Winds have picked up overnight as TS FAY barely moves westerly just off the eastern coast of Florida. A strong easterly wind fetch combined with a SE wind fetch have produced large MIX SWELL and CHOP in the SHOULDER-HEAD range with OVERHEAD peaks and strong currents running from NE-SW. With current models, a clean up session with offshore winds will not happen, but as TS FAY slowly moves inland central Florida, the easterly winds WILL weaken helping the conditions. It looks like one of those situations when the winds just turn off, leaving relatively large and cleaner surf with unorganized conditions which could be a lot of fun. Big peaks with short and steep lines and tubes. Hopefully the easterly drop below 10kts, which is possible, but looks to be more sustained around 15kts as the ridge of high pressure over the east coast slowly takes control of the winds later in the weekend into early next week. Currently the best chance for cleaner surf is looking like Saturday morning or afternoon. It really depends on when TS FAY decides to get moving westwards. Keep a eye on the guidance models for changes in TS FAY speed and trajectory for best time to paddle out.

BOTTOM LINE: BIG MUSHY ENE WINDSWELL/SE GROUNDSWELL CHOP MIX SWELL MUMBLE-JUMBLE, STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WINDS WEAKEN HELPING THE LARGE SWELLS CONDITIONS, BEST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE, SWELL DROPPING OFF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH EASTERLY CHOP STARTING UP MID-NEXT WEEK, A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES IN THE EASTERN-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WORTH WATCHING,

Today (8/21/08):

Water Temp: 84F

Weather: Cloudy and Breezy

High Tide: 1132AM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 60%)

Next Most Likely Size: HEAD-1FTOVERHEAD (Probability: 40%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY/DISORGANIZED/BLOWNOUT

Low Tide: 552PM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 60%)

Next Most Likely Size: HEAD-1FTOVERHEAD (Probability: 40%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY/DISORGANIZED/BLOWNOUT

Wind Speed and Direction: ENE @ 20-30kts