September 2nd, 2008 Surf Forecast

September 2nd, 2008 Surf Forecast - 915AM EDT

Written by Administrator

Waves this morning at the Washout (915AM EDT), CHEST-HEAD high with larger peaks and SEMI-CHOPPY/CHOPPY conditions. Tide is incoming.

Ok... SE swell has continued to fill in over the last few days as TS HANNA continues to slowly progress northwestwards. NE winds have also continued as the high pressure located over the eastern US and the cut off upper level long wave trough off the coast of New England continues to allow for predominately ENE-NE winds along the coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southern States. This is the time of year when the tropics really pick up. TS HANNA has been downgraded this morning from a Hurricane to a Tropical Storm, but should regain hurricane strength in the near future. Observations are showing a slight southerly motion, but models continue to show a northwesterly movement over the next 72 hours or so, before skimming the east coast of Florida and making a northerly turn towards South Carolina. We will want to watch this storm EXTREMELY closely. The upper level ridge of high pressure located over the eastern portion of the US will begin to break down and slowly move eastwards over the next 72 hours. As TS HANNA moves northwesterly, the surface high pressure still in place across the southeast will begin to interact with TS HANNA, which will allow for strong ENE winds. These winds will increase in strength as TS HANNA moves north and tightens the pressure gradient between the two surface pressures. SE SWELL with NE WINDSWELL can be expected over the next few days. Swell is going to build and it is going to be big, 1-3FT OVERHEAD. Surface winds will be less than favorable, with strong NE winds, increasing as the swell builds later in the week. Conditons will be best in the mornings on the incoming tides. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service for updates on TS HANNA.

BOTTOM LINE: BIG SE SWELL WITH NE WINDSWELL/CHOP MIX, IN THE HEAD RANGE, WATCHING TS HANNA WITH MORE SWELL FILLING IN AND STRONGER WINDS, VICTORY AT SEA COMING? BIG AND CHOPPY, WATCHING THE TROPICS.

Today (9/2/08):

Water Temp: 84F

Weather: Partly Cloudy

High Tide: 1023AM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 70%)

Next Most Likely Size: HEAD-1FT OVERHEAD (Probability: 30%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY

Low Tide: 425PM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: CHEST-SHOULDER (Probability: 80%)

Next Most Likely Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 20%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY

Wind Speed and Direction: NE @ 10-20kts