September 5th, 2008 Surf Forecast

September 5th, 2008 Surf Forecast - 915AM EDT

Written by Administrator

Waves this morning at the Washout (915AM EDT), CHEST-SHOULDER high with HEAD+ set and CHOPPY conditions. Tide is incoming.

SE swell in the CHEST-HEAD+ range continues to reach Folly Beach South Carolina. NE winds have been relatively strong over the last 24-36 hours keeping the waves choppy. Swell should increase in size over the next 12-18 hours as TS HANNA moves north. TS HANNA has finally decided to begin a northerly track after a longer than expected tour of the Bahamas. Currently, max sustained winds are at 55kts and TS HANNA is moving NW at 15-16kts (18mph). Current models continue this pace as TS HANNA moves north and impacts the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Western Atlantic, steering TS HANNA around the western quadrant of this ridge. The interaction between the ridge and TS HANNA will certainly bring rough and dangerous conditions across the South Carolina coastline with tropical storm strength. Current models suggest a landfall north of Folly Beach, SC, but we must monitor this track EXTREMELY closely. Most models suggest little if any strengthening, mainly because of moderately strong upper level shear, advection of dry air and the speed of TS HANNA must be considered as a limiting factors. This is not to say that TS HANNA cannot strengthen... We all know the chaotic nature of these heat engines. What does all this mean for the swell? HUGE, CHOPPY MIX SWELL building today with a quick clean up session tomorrow morning with BACKING WINDS as the storm move north. Watch the storm track and listen to your local and state officials. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center for the official forecast.

Now, HURRICANE IKE, is another story. This is a very dangerous storm and something about the model guidance tells me that everyone from Florida - North Carolina should be closely monitoring this system. The final track will directly depend of the upper level ridge of high pressure across the Western Atlantic. Swell from HURRICANE IKE is already on its way. Looks to arrive late Monday, but that is a pretty big guess.

BOTTOM LINE: TOUGH WIND FORECAST, BIG SE SWELL CONTINUES WITH NE WINDCHOP, BIGGER SE SWELL BECOMING MORE EASTERLY MIX SWELL, CLEAN UP SESSION IN THE MORNING WITH BACKING WINDS AS STORM MOVES NORTH. GLASSY SWELL WILL NOT LASTING LONG AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME SOUTHERLY, HURRICANE IKE MUST BE WATCHED,

Today (9/5/08):

Water Temp: 84F

Weather: Cloudy and Breezy

High Tide: 1234PM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 70%)

Next Most Likely Size: HEAD-1FT OVERHEAD (Probability: 30%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY

Low Tide: 644PM EDT

Most Likely Wave Size: CHEST-SHOULDER (Probability: 80%)

Next Most Likely Size: SHOULDER-HEAD (Probability: 20%)

Wave Form: CHOPPY

Wind Speed and Direction: NE @ 20-30kts